Dal quotidiano statunitense “USA TODAY”: Possible US- Iran pact has hitch: Don’t call it a deal

That way it might avoid congressional scrutiny
Kim Hjelmgaard · 3 Lug 2023
USA TODAY
Five years after President Donald Trump pulled the U. S. out of a nuclear deal with Iran and other countries, Washington and Tehran may be on the verge of an informal agreement that encompasses Iran’s pursuit of nuclear weapons, prisoner swaps and regional cycles of violence, according to officials familiar with the matter.
But there’s a catch.
The Biden administration, which has long promised to restore the 2015 nuclear deal, has said that “rumors about a nuclear deal, interim or otherwise, are false and misleading”; the White House may not be able write any agreement without triggering a messy congressional review; and Israel has already vowed to undermine it.
“If this goes forward it will be an attempt by the ( Biden) administration to park a serious escalation between the United States and Iran between now and 2024,” said Aaron David Miller, referring to the U. S. presidential election, in a call with reporters. Miller is a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
First, though: What is the Iran nuclear deal − and what happened to it?
The deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, was negotiated by President Barack Obama’s administration, Iran’s leadership and several other countries. It put significant restrictions on Iran’s fledgling nuclear program in exchange for billions of dollars in relief from economic sanctions.
The goal of the deal was to reduce the chance of a war breaking out between a nuclear- armed Iran and its regional rivals Saudi Arabia and close U. S. ally Israel, Iran’s archenemy. ( Saudi Arabia and Iran restored diplomatic ties earlier this year after China helped broker an initial reconciliation.)
Trump withdrew the U. S. from the deal in 2018, claiming it had failed to curb Iran’s missile program and support for militant groups in Lebanon, Iraq and Syria, which were not actually part of the deal. The Biden administration promised to move quickly to rejoin the agreement. That has not happened.
Limited, informal, kind of, maybe − is there a new Iran agreement coming?
Despite U. S. government denials that a new deal is being negotiated with Iran, two Iranian officials and one Israeli official told USA TODAY the U. S. and Iran are close to reaching an informal agreement aimed at improving U. S.- Iran relations and de- escalating simmering regional tensions.
The agreement, which would not amount to a resumption of the 2015 deal, would limit Iran’s uranium enrichment activities to below a level needed to make a nuclear weapon. It would also free Americans imprisoned in Iran who the U. S. describes as wrongfully detained, according to the officials. Iran would agree to halt attacks by militant groups it backs in Iraq and Syria. These attacks have killed American contractors and wounded U. S. military personnel on military bases that house U. S. troops. Tehran would also agree to stop supplying Russia with missiles and drones it has used to wage war in Ukraine.
In return, the U. S. would stop adding new sanctions to the wide range of punitive measures it has imposed on Iran’s economy since Trump pulled the U. S. from the deal. The U. S. would also agree to unfreeze billions of dollars of Iranian assets and issue sanctions waivers for oil revenues it is owed by South Korea and other countries. These funds would be restricted to humanitarian purposes, such as buying foods and medicines.
“We are cautiously optimistic this agreement will take place in the near future,” said Seyed Mehdi Hosseini Matin, the head of Iran’s diplomatic mission in the United Kingdom, in an interview. A separate Iranian official, and the Israeli one, spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitive nature of the issue.
The U. S. and Iran don’t have formal relations. How are they talking?
Matin said indirect talks between the U. S. and Iran are being mediated by Oman, which has stayed neutral. He said Indonesia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates were also involved in discussions.
Oman’s foreign minister appeared to confirm his country’s involvement as a diplomatic broker in an interview with Middle East news and opinion website Al- Monitor.
“I can say they are close,” Sayyid Badr Albusaidi said of the negotiations to reach an informal agreement between the Washington and Tehran. “This is probably a question of technicalities.”
The U. S. has not publicly confirmed it is speaking to Iran via third parties.
If both sides ultimately want an agreement, what’s the hang- up?
Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, a dual American Iranian citizen who founded Bourse & Bazaar, a think tank focused on Iran’s economy, said that informal agreement may hinge on whether it’s written down − whether there is a negotiated text or it is purely verbal. This because of the Iran Nuclear Agreement
Review Act of 2015, legislation that requires Congress to have the right to review any agreement with Iran.
Batmanghelidj said the Biden administration may want to “avoid the headache” of a congressional review ahead of the U. S. election. What to do about Iran is a highly divisive topic in Washington, and Republicans have long warned the White House not to pursue any agreement with Iran that would give Tehran sanctions relief. Yet Democrats have also expressed deep skepticism over the renewed talks with Iran.
Matin, the Iranian official in London, said any agreement would require a text.
“There must be a text, an objective text, on the table, to sign it, to talk about it,” he said.
And Miller, of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said in the call with reporters that it was “head- exploding” to think that there could be a new agreement between the U. S. and Iran, however informal and limited, that wasn’t “encased or contextualized in some kind of product” − a document.
Israel’s Iran vow: ‘ Preparing all options’
Iran has always insisted its nuclear program is for peaceful, civilian purposes only. Few in Washington or Israel believe that. Still, it was abiding by the terms of the 2015 accord when Trump abandoned the pact. Since then, Iran has come closer to achieving the 90% uranium enrichment required for a nuclear bomb.
But just as Israel opposed the original Iran nuclear deal, it’s against these new talks as well.
The Israeli official familiar with the matter said the content of the agreement is “unfortunate” and “not the right approach” to deal with Iran.
Israel has been linked to a least a dozen attacks against Iran’s nuclear program since 2010 involving cyber, covert operations and assassinations, according to the United States Institute of Peace, a research organization.
The official said that Israel was “preparing all options in case we need to take action ourselves.”