By Austin Ramzy in Hong Kong and Chun Han Wong in Singapore
Chinese leader Xi Jinping turned 70 on Thursday, a milestone marked publicly in China by next to nothing.
Xi has accumulated more power than his recent predecessors, and his image is ubiquitous across state media. But his birthday, in keeping with longstanding Communist Party restrictions against celebrating the birthdays of living leaders, is hardly mentioned, even on such an occasion as significant as this one.
Xi is well past the median age for world leaders—which was 62 in March, according to a report by the Pew Research Center—though much younger than President Biden, who is 80, and former President Donald Trump, who just turned 77.
Having dispensed with retirement precedents and cleared a path to rule indefinitely, Xi likely has many years in power—and quiet birthdays—ahead of him, political analysts say.
While Xi’s predecessor served 10 years as party chief, feeding expectations that a decadelong leadership cycle would become a norm for China, Xi extended his rule into a second decade in October when he took his third term as general secretary— with no formal rules barring him from staying on for as long as he wants.
“All indications show that he wants to stay in power pretty much for life, and there is nothing to stop him from doing so,” said Willy Lam, a senior fellow with the Jamestown Foundation, a think tank in Washington.
Even if Xi were to step down as head of the Communist Party, he could still maintain key positions, such as chairman of the Central Military Commission, which commands the armed forces. With his political philosophy, Xi Jinping Thought, enshrined in the party charter and China’s Constitution, he can ensure his ideas and policies carry weight for as long as he lives.
“The most important thing is that Xi himself is convinced that Xi Jinping Thought is what China needs, and he doesn’t see any alternative to stepping down as long as his health allows,” Lam said.
Though older than most world leaders, Xi is only slightly past the median age for leaders of states classified as “not free,” which Pew puts at 69.
He is also relatively young by the standards of Chinese leaders. Mao Zedong held power until his death in 1976 at the age of 82. Deng Xiaoping stepped down as chairman of the party’s Central Military Commission in 1989, but continued to wield power behind the scenes without any party leadership posts until his death in 1997 at the age of 92.
The state of Xi’s health is a closely guarded secret. Xi has taken to giving major, lengthy speeches at Beijing’s Great Hall of the People seated, as opposed to earlier in his rule, when he generally delivered such addresses standing.
Xi has yet to designate an heir apparent and his succession planning would likely be shaped by his assessment of the time he needs to achieve his goals. Some party insiders and analysts say Xi could choose to stay on until at least 2035, the official deadline for completing some of his key initiatives, including economic development and military modernization.
If Xi chooses to hold on to formal power until 2035, he would be 82 by the time he steps aside—around Biden’s age at the end of his current term.