Climate crisis link to heatwave fires undeniable, say scientists
• Analysis shows human-caused global temperature rises to blame for destruction • Warning to cut emissions fast comes as Sunak faces calls to axe green policies
Damian Carrington Environment editor · 25 Lug 2023
The human-caused climate crisis is undeniably to blame for the deadly heatwaves that have struck Europe and the United States in recent weeks, scientists have shown.
Both would have been virtually impossible without global heating driven by burning fossil fuels, new analysis shows. Another heatwave, in China, was made 50 times more likely by the climate crisis.
The results make it crystal clear that human-caused global heating is destroying lives and livelihoods across the world, making the need to cut emissions ever more urgent. Such brutal heatwaves were no longer rare today, the scientists said, and would worsen as emissions continued to rise. If the world heats by 2C, they will happen every two to five years.
A report by climate scientists in March, endorsed by the world’s governments, said: “There is a rapidly closing window of opportunity to secure a liveable and sustainable future for all.”
The analysis demonstrated how rapidly that window is closing.
In recent days Downing Street has suggested it could delay or abandon certain green policies – a move that would enrage environmental groups who believe this is a moment to move faster, not slower, in the face of the climate emergency.
Under pressure from some MPs and the rightwing press after last week’s Uxbridge and Ruislip byelection – in which the Conservative candidate squeaked home by campaigning against the expansion of London’s ultra-low emission zone (Ulez) – No 10 said yesterday that it would “continually examine and scrutinise” its green policies. Rishi Sunak said he
didn’t want to “unnecessarily give people more hassle and more costs in their lives”. However, Zac Goldsmith, the former environment minister who quit last month, urged the prime minister not to backtrack because the “overarching challenge” facing the UK and the world was clear.
Temperature records were shattered in many places earlier in July in southern Europe, the western US and Mexico and China, bringing heat-related deaths and wildfires. Early July saw the hottest global temperatures in history over its first week. The researchers found that greenhouse gas emissions made the heatwaves 2.5C hotter in Europe, 2C hotter in North America, and 1C hotter in China than if humankind had not changed the global atmosphere.
“Such heatwaves are no longer rare and the most important thing is these extremes kill people, particularly destroying the lives and livelihoods of the most vulnerable,” said Dr Friederike Otto, who works at Imperial College London and was part of the analysis team.
“Politicians often claim that they care about normal people and poor people,” she said. “If we did value people, it’s pretty obvious what we need to do. I don’t think stronger evidence has ever been presented for a scientific question.”
Otto said it was “absolutely critical” governments agreed to phase out fossil fuels at the UN climate summit Cop28 in December. The summit president, Sultan Al Jaber, is also the CEO of the host nation UAE’s oil and gas company. “We still have time to secure a safe and healthy future,” said Otto. “If we do not, tens of thousands of people will keep dying from heatrelated causes each year.”
Julie Arrighi, director at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, said: “Extreme heat is deadly and rapidly on the rise.” She said it was crucial for countries to act to protect people from heat. In the UK last week, the government’s adaptation plan was called “very weak”.
Sunak indicated yesterday that he may delay or abandon some green policies under pressure from the right wing of his party.
A similar series of heatwaves in 2018 across the northern hemisphere was also judged impossible without global heating and more than 500 extreme weather events have now been analysed by scientists.
They found that 93% of heatwaves and 68% of droughts had been made more severe and/or more likely by human-caused emissions.
More than 61,000 people died in the European heatwaves of 2022, according to a recent study, including more than 3,000 in the UK.
Another study estimated that millions had died from heat across the world in the past three decades.
However, global progress to cut fossil fuel burning remains very slow, with the G20 the latest group to have such plans stymied by the opposition of fossil fuel states led by Saudi Arabia on Saturday. The analysis by the World Weather Attribution group used peer-reviewed methods to quantify the impact of the climate crisis on the recent heatwaves. They used weather data up to 18 July and computer models to compare today’s climate, with 1.2C of global heating, with the cooler climate of the late 1800s. It found that the heatwaves in Europe and the US were, as an absolute minimum, made 950 and 4,400 times more likely by global heating – making it virtually certain that they were the result of human-caused emissions. In China, the heatwave was made 50 times more likely.
In today’s hotter climate, these heatwaves are expected about every five years in China, every 10 years in Europe and 15 years in the US, but will happen ever more frequently as emissions continue to rise.
Gareth Redmond-King, at the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit in the UK, said: “As we keep burning fossil fuels, we fuel ever worse climate impacts. It won’t stop until we cut emissions to net zero.”
Helen Clarkson, CEO of the Climate Group, said that the UK government rowing back on green policies was “astonishing” and “economically irresponsible”.